Methods for Estimating C.L.E.M. cost

 

Size of power plant 160 Mw, 330 Mw 1,330 Mw

160 Mw is presently the minimum predicted size power plant of this type that would be economical to build. Economical means it requires that the power plant pay for itself in 30 years. The costs that will have to be paid for in 30 years are: the above ground infrastructure1* ($2,000/Kw); underground infrastructure $120 million for vertical development 2*; horizontal development ($2,000/Kw). With a minimum starting expense of $120 million for vertical development before any power capacity can be added (horizontal development provides power capacity)160 Mw is estimated to generate a profit of $17.12 million a year and with the cost of maintenance yet to be proven3*. Considering the size of the project at $760 million and potential for cost overruns, anything smaller would probably be unprofitable.

330 Mw is a size requested for potential development and is also a convenient size for modular expansion.

1,330 Mw would be the full power production capacity that the vertical shafts could support at one location using 16 ft diameter wells 4*.

 

Size/cost to build $760 million, $1,440 million, $5,560 million

160 Mw estimated cost $760 Million (120+320+320=760)
Vertical construction: depth 30,000 ft = $120 million 2*
Horizontal construction: $2,000/Kw(2,000x160Mw=$320 million)2*
Above ground power plant: 160 Mw $2,000/Kw ((2,000x160 Mw= $320 million)1*
330 Mw estimated cost $1,440 Million (120+660+660=1,440)
Vertical construction: depth 30,000 ft $120 million 2*
Horizontal construction: $2,000/Kw (2,000x330 Mw=$660 million)2*
Above ground power plant: 330 Mw $2,000/Kw ((2,000x330 Mw= $660 million) 1*
1,330 Mw estimated cost $5,560 Million (240+2660+2660=5,560)
Vertical construction depth: 30,000 ft $240 million 2*
Horizontal construction: $2,000/Kw (2,000x1,330Mw=$2,660 million)2*
Above ground power plant 1,330 Mw $2,000/Kw ((2,000x1,330Mw= $2,660 million)1*


Tax Revenue/year $30.48 million, $62.9 million, $193.4 million

Tax rate of 30% on revenue of $101.6 million, $209.6 million, $644.6 million
Yearly Revenue = (Hours running per year) x (rate per Kwhr) x (% of capacity at set rate) x (total capacity)

160Mw

(8,700 hr) x ($.04/Kw) x (30%) x (160Mw) = $16,704,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.04/Kw) x (10%) x (160Mw) = $5,568,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.02/Kw) x (10%) x (160Mw) = $2,784,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.11/Kw) x (50%) x (160Mw) = $76,560,000

Total = $101,616,000

330Mw

(8,700 hr) x ($.04/Kw) x (30%) x (330Mw) = $34,452,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.04/Kw) x (10%) x (330Mw) = $11,484,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.02/Kw) x (10%) x (330Mw) = $5,742,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.11/Kw) x (50%) x (330Mw) = $157,905,000

Total = $209,583,000

1.330Mw

(8,700 hr) x ($.04/Kw) x (30%) x (330Mw) = $34,452,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.04/Kw) x (10%) x (330Mw) = $11,484,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.02/Kw) x (10%) x (330Mw) = $5,742,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.11/Kw) x (50%) x (330Mw) = $157,905,000
(8,700 hr) x ($.05/Kw) x (100%) x (1,000Mw) = $435,000,000

Total = $644,583,000

Finance payment (Quarterly $12million, $22.8 million, $88 million)

Using a 3% interest rate bond over 30 years, payments = interest + principle

((Total value of bond) x (interest rate))+ ((Total value of bond) / (years of bond))
Quarterly payments = (Yearly payments) / 4

(($760 million) x (3%)) + (($760 million) / (30 years)) = $48.13 million a year
($48.13 million a year) / 4 = $12 million

(($1,440 million) x (3%)) + (($1,440 million) / (30 years)) = $91.2 million a year
($91.2 million a year) / 4 = $22.8 million

(($5,560 million) x (3%)) + (($5,560 million) / (30 years)) = $352.13 million a year
($352.13 million a year) / 4 = $88 million

Profit margin/year
($17.12million, $46.55million, $87.07 million) - maintenance

Profit = (total revenue) - (finance payments + Taxes + Employee pay + maintenance*)

($101.6 million) - ($48 million + $30.48 million + $6 million) = $17.12 million - *

($209.6 million) - ($91.2 million + $62.9 million + $9 million) = $46.55 million - *

($644.6 million) - ($352.13 million + $193.4 million + $12 million) = $87.07 million - *

* Maintenance costs are still being researched

Employees 100, 150, 200

The number of employees is expected to be closer to that of a nuclear power plant then a standard open loop geothermal power plant, due to the size and complexity of this much larger type of geothermal power plant. There is a good possibility that only half the projected number of employees will be required. The optimal number of employees can best be determined when the power plant is running and employee performance is evaluated.

Time of construction 3, 4, 6 years

160 Mw: vertical construction requiring 1 year, then horizontal and above ground structures are built at the same time requiring an additional year. One additional year is estimated for overcoming challenges of developing a prototype and to prove that the system is safe and is performing as was calculated.

330Mw: Adding 170Mw just about doubling power production capacity is done by adding a modular expansion of comparable size to the horizontal and above ground structures, which required a year to build. Thus 3 years for prototype plus 1 year for expansion = 4 years.

1,330Mw: Adding 1000Mw of expansion could be done by building three more legs of the horizontal infrastructure. Also one more vertical shaft would be developed at the same time. All of the horizontal legs and vertical structures can be built simultaneously with no more than 2 years being required for any one section. This would include the increased power generation equipment above ground. Theoretically vertical drilling for a 6 inch bore could be done at a rate of 30,000 ft in 40 days, if you do not have to change drill bits or pull pipe out of the ground. Realistically a 6 inch well to 30,000 ft could require at least 100 days of drilling for most oil wells*8. Horizontal tunneling equipment used for a project in Izmir Turkey cut a tunnel 19.5 ft in diameter at a rate of 25 meters in 20 hours *7. That would be ((8700hr per year) / 20 hr) x 25 meters = 10875 meters per year 1 miles =1,609 meters so they were tunneling at a rate of over 6.5 miles a year.

Tax rate for power plant 30%

This represents the tax rate which developers will seek from potential towns and state governments prior to development. Developers are offering incentives to help local citizens and businesses prosper. However, there has to be an agreement that protects developers from unpredictable changes in tax rates, because once the facility is built they can not just move if tax increases make business unprofitable.

10-20 year average price of electricity $.11Kw/hr-$.24Kw/hr

National Grid charged $.086Kw on 1/1/2010 for generation of electricity in Western Massachusetts. A very conservative estimate is that this price will be no more then $.11/Kw when C.L.E.M. goes on line. In 20 years the cost of electricity could get as high as $.24Kw, but we suggest if supply is increased with demand then stable and predictable cost of electricity can be achieved. Thus for ease of basic calculation and to avoid speculation on future cost for electricity $.11Kw is used as a constant even though the cost of electricity will likely go up over time.

Interest rate for financing of power plant 3% Bond 30 years

Developers can provide long term economic growth and jobs with this form of clean energy. As part of the economic stimulus, developers would be seeking government bonds to help finance the project with a favorable rate of 3%.

Average Pay of $60,000/year per employee

This is today's average pay for a mechanical engineer 9*. It is expected that slight increases in the cost of electricity will pay for maintenance and employee pay increases resulting from inflation.

Running 8700 hr/year

Shut downs would be modular with one section off line at a time so the power plant would always be producing even if 40 Mw (1 module) was off line.

 
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J. David Reynolds

Founder & President
Atlantic Geothermal

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